Hormuz reopening uncertain as Tehran refutes Trump’s claims
25 May 2026
- IRGC-linked news agency Fars News said that ‘passage through the strait will be restored to pre-war levels under Iran’s management’ suggesting that freedom of navigation may take a while
- Tehran wants the US naval blockade to be lifted concurrently for pre-war transits to resume, but the US will only do so once a deal is signed
- Iran is also pushing for sanctions to be lifted and frozen funds to be released
The US blockade and the IRGC’s control continue as the US Navy reaches a milestone of diverting 100 ships while the IRGC allows 33 vessels through.
Iran’s creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority — launched this week as a mechanism to normalise its control of the strait — was initially dismissed as a bargaining ploy.
What if this ends with an administered strait: hostilities paused, a ceasefire holding, traffic recovering — but under permanent Iranian oversight? In that scenario, the PGSA doesn’t disappear after negotiations. It becomes the framework. Affiliation vetting, nationality-tiered access and fee collection become standard practice.
That half of successful passages this week were China-affiliated may not be an anomaly at all, but an early glimpse of this architecture — a tiered access system already functioning as intended.
At two separate industry meetings on Thursday, straw polls of senior leaders showed more than half would accept Iranian transit tolls in exchange for a credible reopening of the chokepoint. These votes are not statistically meaningful???, but they reflect a real shift in sentiment spreading across the sector.
[1] This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3084280/
(Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List)
Hormuz crisis surprise: how VLCC rates stayed at $100K per day
- Only 11 more VLCCs are competing for non-Middle East cargoes amid Hormuz crisis, with added competition offset by longer voyage distances, says Frontline
- Many VLCCs on long-term charters for Middle East-Asia trade have not been redeployed to Atlantic spot trades; they continue to await a strait reopening
- Hormuz crisis reduced crude flows by 13.8m bpd but the net decline is less than half that, 6.2m bpd, due to gains outside of the strait
A multi-month blockade of the strait was expected to be negative — potentially highly negative — for VLCC spot rates. Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad explains why this hasn’t happened.
Gulf states call on governments to reject PGSA’s Hormuz route as Iran eyes tolls with Oman
22 May 2026
- Middle East Gulf states warn that recognising Iran’s route or the PGSA would set a ‘dangerous precedent’
- The IMO is holding diplomatic talks with Iran and Oman to restore safe, unrestricted navigation amid rising tensions over control of the strategic waterway
- Iran’s ambassador to France yesterday confirmed it is in talks with Oman to enforce permanent tolls
- With the choke on Hormuz, the UAE has ramped up STS transfers at Sohar port to keep exports of crude oil flowing
Dry bulk[2] near multiyear highs on strong demand and Hormuz crisis side effects
- Capesize index[3] is double the normal level for this time of year; it recently hit its highest point since December 2023
- Supramax index is now strongest since August 2022; panamax index recently reached highest point since July 2022
- Upside from Hormuz crisis (slower speeds, higher coal demand) coincide with rising iron ore and bauxite exports from Atlantic basin
[2] Dry bulk shipping refers to the transportation of massive, unpackaged solid commodities (like iron ore, coal, and grain) by sea. Instead of being placed in shipping containers or boxes, these loose, homogenous materials are poured directly into the specialized cargo holds of large vessels called bulk carriers.
[3] The Capesize index (officially the Baltic Capesize Index or BCI ) is a daily shipping benchmark published by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures the global cost of chartering large, dry bulk cargo ships known as Capesize vessels.
21 May 2026
Middle East port update: Thursday, May 21
In Oman, all ports are now operating at ISPS Level 1
In Israel, Haifa port and Ashdod port have a limit of 16,000 vehicles to store within the port’s limits, SPIG (Haifa Bay port) and HCT (Ashdod’s private port) both have a limit of 5,000 capacity.
Kuwait
- All ports are operating normally. No stoppage of operations has been reported and no official information from the port authorities.
- Coastguard notice: kindly note that entry permits for foreign vessels arriving from Iraqi ports are temporarily suspended until further notice.
- Shuaiba and Shuwaikh ports ISPS Level 2.
- Airspace is partially reopened.
Oman
- Current status: all ports are fully operational.
- Vessels calling at all Oman ports must submit an official letter stating that they are not carrying any dangerous goods on board. If any dangerous goods are found, the type of cargo must be specified in detail, and the vessel must await the ministry’s approval before entering Omani territorial waters.
- The following notification was received from the Mina Al Fahal terminal (crude oil) loading facility. All vessels scheduled to call at MAF are to ensure their Doppler log is fully operational. This precaution is necessary due to ongoing GPS interference in the area. Vessels without a functioning Doppler log cannot be berthed due to safety requirements.
- All ports are ISPS Level 1. (updated)
- Airspace remains open, although some international flight routes have been suspended.
Qatar
- Ministry of Transport announced the full return of maritime navigation activities from May 2.
- The MOT urges owners of vessels and sailors to make sure of the availability and functioning of all necessary safety and security equipment on board before and during sailing, to ensure the highest levels of safety and security for all trips.
- Qatar Airways has announced the return of passenger flights to Baghdad, Basra and Erbil in Iraq, starting on May 10.
- Notice from QatarEnergy (Ras Laffan Terminal): all previously advised restrictions on AIS operation have been cancelled with immediate effect. AIS should now be switched on as normal.
Saudi Arabia
- There are presently no alerts or warnings issued by the local port authorities. All operational activities are functioning at full capacity.
- Flights have resumed out of KSA. Emirates is not flying to Dammam. FlyDubai, Air Arabia, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways are operating from Dammam. FlyDubai is operating and connecting Emirates passengers from Dubai to onward connections.
Bahrain
- Vessel movements in Bahrain have resumed. However, operations remain limited due to the current situation. BAPCO operations remain suspended.
- APM Terminals port operations have resumed from 0600 hrs to 1800 hrs.
- Bahrain’s airspace has officially reopened, and Bahrain International airport is operational with limited flight services. Crew changes are possible in Bahrain subject to flight availability.
- ISPS security level remains at Level 1.
Qatar
- Ministry of Transport announced the full return of maritime navigation activities from May 2.
- The MOT urges owners of vessels and sailors to make sure of the availability and functioning of all necessary safety and security equipment on board before and during sailing, to ensure the highest levels of safety and security for all trips.
- Qatar Airways has announced the return of passenger flights to Baghdad, Basra and Erbil in Iraq, starting on May 10.
- Notice from QatarEnergy (Ras Laffan Terminal): all previously advised restrictions on AIS operation have been cancelled with immediate effect. AIS should now be switched on as normal.
Egypt
- No alerts/notifications have been issued by the local authorities.
- All ports and the Suez Canal are operating without disruption.
- (Egyptair) commenced operating some flights to and from MEG countries.
Jordan
- Jordan remains stable. Authorities continue to issue general public awareness guidelines purely as precautionary measures. There are no security incidents inside Jordan.
- All operations remain normal at Aqaba port. Terminals, marine services, cargo handling and gate operations are functioning without disruption. Maritime navigation and cargo operations are proceeding smoothly and without delay.
- Royal Jordanian and the Jordanian airspace remain open; flights to Qatar, UAE, Syria, Bahrain and Kuwait remain closed.
Pakistan
- All ports remain fully operational.
- ISPS level remains at Level 1.
- Airspace remains open, with no operational impact reported.
Iraq
- Iraqi ports (Umm Qasr ports North and South, and Khor al Zubair) are working normally.
- Basrah Oil Terminal and SPM Somo Terminal have ceased export operations.
- Fresh water supply and food purchasing/provisioning are available.
- Crew change is available, but there is a delay in issuing the visa.
- Shore leave (for emergency medical treatment) available.
Lebanon
- All ports remain operational, with no alerts or warnings issued by the local port authorities so far. South of Lebanon is in an unstable operational situation.
- ISPS level remains at Level 1.
- Airspace remains open and operating only Middle East Airlines flights.
- All private and public sectors are working normally.
Israel
- All Israeli ports are fully open for business and functioning at full capacity.
- Haifa port and Ashdod port have a limit of 16,000 vehicles to store within the port’s limits, SPIG (Haifa Bay port) and HCT (Ashdod’s private port) both have a limit of 5,000 capacity. Before discharging, the number of available spaces must be checked and only if there is enough space roro vessels will be allowed to offload vehicles in port. This does not apply on direct delivery (pick up within three days from offload from ship).
- No ship has left Israel or was forced to leave outside its schedule.
- Airspace is open. but restricted.
Source: Inchcape Shipping Services — the appointed Lloyd’s Agents in UAE, Oman, Kuwait Qatar and Iraq. Status last updated May 21, 1100 hrs UAE local time